Optimism around a potential EU-US trade agreement powered global stock markets to new record highs on Thursday, just ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) final meeting before its summer break and an unexpected visit by US President Donald Trump to the Federal Reserve.
World Stocks on a Winning Streak
MSCI’s global stock index extended its winning streak to seven sessions, buoyed by news that 15% tariffs with sector exceptions between the EU and Washington were nearing agreement.
The momentum followed a recently inked deal with Japan.
Europe and Asia Join the Rally
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 came close to its all-time high overnight.
In Europe, Germany’s export-heavy DAX jumped over 1%, while the STOXX 600 rose 0.6%.
Deutsche Bank surged 4% after a strong earnings beat, pushing European banking stocks to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Nestlé, however, tumbled 4.5% following weaker-than-expected results and news of a business divestiture.
ECB Set to Hold After Seven Cuts
The ECB is widely expected to pause interest rate changes after seven consecutive cuts brought rates down from 4% to 2%.
With inflation stabilizing at the ECB’s 2% target, markets are focusing on what ECB President Christine Lagardewill say regarding the outlook and EU-US trade negotiations.
Analysts suggest a September rate cut remains on the table if tariffs land higher than expected.
“We expect between 15–20% tariffs, which is above the ECB’s base case and could push them to cut again,” said Julie Ioffe, European macro strategist at TD Securities.
Mixed Economic Data
Regional PMI data showed fragility in France due to budget cuts but resilience in Germany, lifting the eurozone composite PMI to an 11-month high.
Currency & Bond Markets React
Euro dipped 0.1% to US$1.1760, just below this month’s peak.
Australian dollar rose to an eight-month high at US$0.6625 on trade optimism.
Dollar-yen slid for a fourth straight session to 146.35, with Societe Generale expecting further yen strength.
Trump’s Surprise Fed Visit
Markets were calm despite a surprise announcement that President Trump would visit the Federal Reserve later in the day — a potential move to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the upcoming policy meeting.
“The intent is unclear but likely tied to rate cut pressure,” noted OCBC’s Vasu Menon.
Market Rundown
US 10-year Treasury yields held steady at 4.3937%.
German 10-year bonds saw their biggest jump since May, up 7.5 basis points to 2.674%.
S&P 500 earnings season is in full swing: 85% of the 23% of companies that have reported have beat expectations (LSEG data).
Commodities Check
US crude oil rose 0.52% to US$65.59, helped by trade deal momentum and falling inventories.
Gold slipped to US$3,370 as risk appetite dimmed safe-haven demand.
Comments
Post a Comment