$CIMB (1023.MY)$ is expected to post a solid but steady performance in Q2 2025, thanks to stable net interest margins (NIMs) and a pickup in non-interest income, according to Maybank Research’s pre-results note.
The research house is maintaining a “Hold” rating with an unchanged target price of MYR7.60, as investors await the official earnings release on August 29, following the July 30 announcement by its Indonesian arm, CIMB Niaga.
What’s Driving the Outlook?
Stable NIMs: Margins remained steady quarter-on-quarter, with gains in Malaysia and Singapore offsetting some pressure in Thailand and Indonesia.
Non-Interest Income Up: Strong trading and forex activity provided a meaningful boost.
Asset Quality in Check: Credit costs are projected to stay benign, with CIMB's full-year guidance of 25–35bpsstill intact. Maybank's own projection is slightly more conservative at 36bps.
The Weak Spot: Slower Loan Growth
While most metrics look encouraging, loan growth could fall short. The group’s cautious lending approach—especially in corporate and commercial banking—due to tighter yield spreads, has led Maybank to forecast 4.5% growth for 2025, below CIMB’s 5–7% target.
Overall Take
Maybank is holding its earnings estimates steady, seeing enough strength in NIMs and non-interest income to balance out lending headwinds. While CIMB remains positioned for stability, the "Hold" rating reflects a valuation that’s fair but not compellingly cheap at this stage.
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