Oil breaks US$100, Wall Street retreats and bond yields rise, inflation is becoming the market’s biggest risk again Global markets are starting Thursday in a more defensive position. Brent crude has broken above US$100 a barrel , U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, and Wall Street fell for a third straight session as investors reassess whether central banks may need to keep tightening rather than easing. For Malaysian investors, the key chain today is increasingly clear: Oil → inflation → interest rates → bond yields → USD/MYR → Bursa valuations. 30-second market snapshot Market / Asset Latest 🇺🇸 S&P 500 7,636.36, -0.48% 🇺🇸 Dow Jones 52,380.66, -0.77% 🇺🇸 Nasdaq 26,253.34, -0.64% 🇲🇾 FBM KLCI 1,714.34, virtually flat 💵 USD/MYR ~4.06 🇺🇸 U.S. 10Y Treasury ~4.84% 🇺🇸 U.S. 2Y Treasury ~4.42% 🥇 Gold ~US$4,396/oz 🛢️ Brent crude US$101.21/bbl 🛢️ WTI crude US$96.05/bbl ₿ Bitcoin ~US$79,300 🇯🇵 Nikkei ~64,760, -0.6% this morning Brent jumped about 3.4% Wednesda...
China has pulled off a major trade surprise — racking up a record trade surplus of US$586 billion in the first half of 2025, even as global trade tensions roiled markets.
Key Highlights:
June Exports: +5.8% YoY to US$325 billion
June Imports: +1.1% YoY (first growth since Feb)
Surplus: Highest ever recorded for H1
Exports to the US dropped 16.1%, but China made up the shortfall with a 17% surge in shipments to ASEAN, showing just how agile Chinese exporters have become at navigating geopolitical landmines.
Resilience Amid Tariffs
Despite slashing US-bound exports by over 34% in May, Chinese factories recovered strongly in June, front-loading shipments and diverting trade routes through Southeast Asia.
🗣️ “China’s trade resisted pressure and progressed in the first half of the year,” said Wang Lingjun, China Customs.
But warning lights remain. The US will implement a new round of tariffs from August 1, including:
A 50% tariff on copper
A 40% penalty on goods seen as being re-routed through Vietnam and other hubs
These actions directly target China’s long-standing workaround of using transshipment countries to soften the blow of US tariffs.
Money Master Take:
China's record-breaking surplus proves its supply chain strength and export flexibility, but the second half of 2025 could get tougher. Investors should:
Watch for weakening US-bound demand
Monitor ASEAN supply chain dependencies
Consider the impact of rising protectionism on China-exposed industries
📊 "Strong exports help offset weak domestic demand and could keep GDP growth near 5%," says Zhiwei Zhang from Pinpoint Asset Management.
Final Thoughts:
The next round of US tariffs and ongoing transshipment crackdowns could determine if China’s trade resilience holds up — or whether this surplus is the peak before a slowdown.
Comments
Post a Comment