Beijing stands still for now, but will it blink later this year?
Despite deflation pressures and global trade headwinds, China’s central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged on July 21, signaling confidence in the country's modest Q2 economic rebound — but not ruling out more support later.
Key Points:
1-Year LPR stays at 3.0%
5-Year LPR (influences mortgages) holds at 3.5%
No surprises — Reuters survey predicted no change from all 20 analysts
Despite above-target real GDP, nominal growth remains weak due to deflation
All eyes now on the upcoming Politburo meeting, expected to steer economic policy for H2 2025
Expert Insight:
“China’s GDP deflator has been negative for nine straight quarters. That weighs on corporate profits and incomes. We expect another 20bps cut by year-end — but aggressive easing is unlikely.”— Tommy Xie, OCBC
Why It Matters:
China’s economic resilience gave room to hold steady.
But weak domestic demand, producer deflation, and Trump’s tariffs may force action soon.
Policy pivots at the Politburo meeting could shape stimulus plans for the rest of 2025.
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