KUALA LUMPUR, July 30 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia's key index closed at an intraday high today, supported by continued buying interest even as renewed geopolitical tensions and a weaker overnight lead from Wall Street following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to stand pat on interest rates weighed on broader sentiment. The Fed has decided to hold rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, with the Federal Funds Rate unchanged between 3.50 per cent and 3.75 per cent. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) rose 4.84 points to 1,720.40 from yesterday’s close of 1,715.56. The benchmark index, which opened 1.14 points lower at 1,714.42, hit its lowest level of 1,710.69 in early trade before gaining momentum for the rest of the day. However, the broader market was negative with losers outpacing gainers 581 to 411, while 612 counters were unchanged, 1,173 untraded, and 87 suspended. Turnover declined to 2.49 billion units valued at RM2.25 billion from ...
Headline GDP: +5.2% YoY | +1.1% QoQ
Market Forecast: +5.1% YoY | +0.9% QoQ
Official 2025 Target: ~5%
Despite escalating U.S. trade threats and persistent domestic challenges, China delivered a Q2 GDP print of 5.2%, narrowly exceeding consensus. However, analysts warn this may mask growing vulnerabilities in the economy’s core drivers.
Key Takeaways
Growth Supported by Front-Loaded Exports
Robust export performance ahead of Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline bolstered Q2 numbers.
Zhiwei Zhang (Pinpoint): “Front-loading helped exceed target — gives Beijing space to absorb H2 weakness.”
Momentum to Weaken in H2 2025
Reuters poll: GDP seen slowing to 4.5% in 3Q, 4.0% in 4Q.
Structural headwinds:
Deflation risk: PPI in June saw sharpest drop in ~2 years
Soft consumer spending: Retail sales losing steam
Property slump deepens: Investment down 11.2% YoY, home prices fall for 8th straight month
Stimulus Expectations Rise
Politburo meeting (late July) expected to signal policy shifts.
Possible levers:
Further rate cuts
Increased liquidity injections
Expanded fiscal deficit spending
Sector Snapshot (June Data)
| Indicator | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Output (YoY) | +6.8% | ↑ vs May’s +5.8% |
| Retail Sales (YoY) | Slowing | ↓ Consumer momentum |
| Fixed-Asset Investment | +2.8% | ↓ vs Jan–May’s +3.7% |
| Property Investment (YoY) | -11.2% | Worsening |
| New Home Prices (MoM) | ↓ Fastest pace in 8 months |
Outlook: Recession Unlikely, But Recovery Is Uneven
While Q2 results beat estimates, real recovery remains patchy and externally vulnerable.
Analysts say stimulus will be necessary but not sufficient, with confidence and demand still lagging.
GDP Forecast (Reuters Poll):
2025: 4.6% (vs official target of 5.0%)
2026: 4.2%
Comments
Post a Comment