Key Takeaways
Futures edge higher after seven-session S&P 500 streak despite shutdown overhang.
AMD extends rally on multi-year OpenAI supply deal; ripple effects across AI hardware.
Dell hikes long-term targets; IBM teams with Anthropic; AppLovin stabilizes after probe report.
Trilogy Metals spikes on US investment; Constellation beats but trims FY guide.
Movers & Setups
Tesla (TSLA)
–1.1% pre-market after +5.5% Monday. Teasing “10/7” reveal; speculation ranges from mass-market model to Roadster update. Trading skew: headline-sensitive; watch options-implied vol into event.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
+4.9% pre-market after +24% Monday. Multi-year deal to supply OpenAI up to 6GW GPUs; OpenAI warrant to buy up to 160M AMD shares (~10%). Read-through: supports AI capex breadth beyond a single vendor; watch MI450 timeline.
NVIDIA (NVDA) / Broadcom (AVGO)
NVDA +0.7%, AVGO +1% pre-market after Monday softness. Positioning: beneficiaries of sustained AI build-out; expect pair-trades vs AMD into earnings/guides.
Dell (DELL)
+6.3%. Lifts LT revenue CAGR target to 7–9% (from 3–4%); EPS growth ≥15% (from 8%). Thesis: AI servers/services mix driving margin expansion.
AppLovin (APP)
+2.9% after –14% Monday on reported SEC inquiry into data practices. Company: engages with regulators; material updates would be disclosed. Trade: relief bounce; regulatory headline risk persists.
IBM (IBM)
+3.0%. Partnership with Anthropic to integrate LLMs into select IBM software. Angle: accelerates enterprise GenAI adoption across IBM stack.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ)
+239% to $7.09. US to invest $36.5M (~10% stake) plus warrants for +7.5%. Catalyst: strategic domestic metals; expect volatility as valuation resets.
Constellation Brands (STZ)
+4.2%. Q2 beats; trims FY EPS guide to $9.86–$10.16 (prior $10.77–$11.07). Mix headwinds from younger consumers; watch cost discipline and brand elasticity.
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR)
–19%. Slight Q1 beat but swings to loss; no formal guidance amid tariff uncertainty. View: de-risking until visibility on AI/auto silicon test demand improves.
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
–3.3% to $84.76. Jefferies downgrade to Underperform; PT cut to $70 on tariff, competition, margin pressure. Monitor price investment vs traffic.
Amazon (AMZN)
+0.4%. Prime “Big Deal Days” kicks off. Focus: unit growth, deal quality, traffic vs 2024 comp, third-party seller momentum.
What to Watch Next
Shutdown data gap: traders lean on high-frequency indicators and guidance commentary.
AI capex breadth: follow-on orders, power/thermal constraints, lead times across GPU/ASIC supply chain.
Event risk: Tesla 10/7 reveal; Prime Day GMV snapshots; incremental regulatory headlines on adtech/data.
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