Asian markets are set for a choppy session Thursday, tracking Wall Street’s rollercoaster performance as US-China trade tensions intensify and investors brace for policy and earnings-driven swings.
Futures Signal Mixed Open Across the Region
Equity futures in Shanghai and Tokyo pointed higher, while Hong Kong looked weaker and Sydney remained flat. The uneven setup follows a volatile overnight session in the US, where the S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US) swung more than 2% intraday before closing modestly higher.
Traders in Asia will be watching how far the renewed US-China trade conflict will escalate after US President Donald Trump declared, “We’re in a trade war now.”
Wall Street Swings Wildly as Fed Bets Build
After climbing as much as 1.2% early in the session, the S&P 500 briefly turned negative before rebounding.
Treasuries: Two-year yields steadied near 3.50%, close to their 2025 lows.
Dollar Index (DXY): Fell for the second consecutive day, as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts.
Futures are now pricing in at least one outsized rate cut before year-end, with traders speculating the Fed could move more aggressively than consensus forecasts suggest.
Despite turbulence, the S&P 500’s six-month rally—its best stretch since the 1950s—remains intact, supported by expectations of further monetary easing and solid corporate earnings.
Trade War Escalates as Tariffs Deepen
Markets remain on edge following Trump’s comments that the US is imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, calling it necessary protection amid a dispute over critical minerals.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a possible pause on further tariff hikes, but investors remain cautious as rhetoric hardens on both sides.
Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected to visit Singapore later this month, marking the first trip by a top Chinese leader in seven years as both nations aim to strengthen economic ties.
Commodities React: Oil Climbs, Gold Surges Past US$4,200
Oil prices rebounded from a five-month low after Trump announced that India will halt Russian oil imports, tightening global supply expectations.
Gold hit an all-time high of US$4,200 per ounce, as risk-averse investors sought safe-haven assets amid trade and political uncertainty.
Corporate Earnings Add Tailwinds
“Buy-the-dip investors are keeping sentiment firm even as indicators flash signs of exhaustion,” said Mark Hackett, Chief of Investment Research at Nationwide.
Investor Outlook: Expect Choppy but Supported Markets
Key Watchpoints Today:
US-China trade rhetoric and tariff updates
Corporate earnings momentum from global banks and tech
Regional policy signals, including Japan’s leadership vote and China’s diplomatic outreach
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