Malaysia is expected to unveil an expansionary yet fiscally disciplined Budget 2026 on Friday, aiming to shrink the fiscal deficit through improved tax collection and new levies, even as government spending rises to support growth.
Economists project the deficit to narrow to 3.4%-3.6% of GDP next year from 3.8% in 2025, in line with Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s medium-term fiscal consolidation target of 3% by 2030.
Total expenditure is forecast to climb to RM435 billion, driven by record-high operating expenditure of RM348 billion—reflecting higher civil service wages, targeted cash aid, and social spending. Development expenditure may rise modestly to RM87 billion, with allocations for infrastructure, green energy, and digital projects under the 13th Malaysia Plan.
Key projects include the LRT Mutiara Penang, Johor–Singapore Special Economic Zone, and major flood mitigation works.
New Revenue Measures
To sustain fiscal discipline, the government is expected to introduce:
An expanded consumption tax framework and carbon levy, initially targeting energy-intensive sectors.
Higher excise duties on sugar, alcohol, tobacco, and vape products.
Enhanced tax collection efficiency through digitalization and tighter compliance measures.
The budget may also introduce strategic investment tax credits to offset the impact of the Global Minimum Tax on multinational corporations, and announce further subsidy rationalization, potentially ending sugar subsidies costing RM500 million annually.
Economic Outlook
Malaysia’s economy is forecast to grow 4%-5% in 2026, supported by robust domestic demand, strong FDI inflows, and tourism recovery. Economists expect data centre investments and industrial diversification to continue driving private sector expansion.
However, a stronger ringgit and lower oil prices could weigh on government revenue, with Petronas dividends likely falling to RM20–25 billion from RM32 billion this year, according to China Galaxy Securities International.
Analysts view Budget 2026 as a launch pad for the 13th Malaysia Plan, balancing growth stimulus with fiscal prudence to build a more resilient, investment-friendly economy.
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