Oil prices extended losses on Friday, heading for their third consecutive monthly decline, as a stronger US dollar and ample global supply outweighed concerns about sanctions on Russian crude.
Market Snapshot
Brent crude: US$64.67/bbl (–0.5%)
WTI crude: US$60.22/bbl (–0.6%)
Monthly performance: Both benchmarks down about 3% in October
Analysts said the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone on further rate cuts strengthened the dollar, dampening investor appetite for commodities priced in the greenback.
“A stronger USD weighed on investor appetite across the commodities complex,” ANZ analysts noted.
Supply Outpaces Demand
Oil markets remain under pressure from rising production by major producers, including OPEC+ members and the United States, with supply growth expected to outpace demand this year.
OPEC+ is leaning toward a modest output boost in December, according to sources familiar with upcoming talks.
The group’s eight largest members have already raised targets by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 2.5% of global supply, through a series of monthly increases.
Saudi Arabia’s crude exports hit a six-month high of 6.41 million bpd in August, with further gains expected.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a record 13.6 million bpd in domestic production last week.
Geopolitics and Trade
While Western sanctions continue to disrupt Russian oil exports, rising supply elsewhere — including from Saudi Arabia and the US — is offsetting lost barrels.
US President Donald Trump said China has agreed to purchase US energy, potentially including oil and gas from Alaska. However, analysts remain skeptical about its market impact.
“Alaska produces only 3% of total US crude output, and Chinese LNG purchases are likely to remain market-driven,” said Barclays analyst Michael McLean.
Investor Takeaway
Oil’s fundamentals remain bearish into year-end:
High global output,
Softening demand growth, and
A strong US dollar continue to weigh on prices.
While OPEC+ may consider adjusting output targets to stabilize the market, traders expect limited near-term upsideunless there is a significant supply disruption or policy shift from major producers.
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