After weeks of unrelenting gains, gold’s historic rally has finally met resistance. The precious metal tumbled as much as 6.3% on Tuesday — its biggest single-day drop in 12 years — just a day after notching a record high of US$4,381.52 per ounce.
A mix of factors drove the selloff, including positive developments in U.S.-China trade talks, a stronger U.S. dollar, and growing technical fatigue after an overbought run. Adding to the uncertainty, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has deprived traders of crucial market data, further amplifying volatility.
Cooling Haven Demand
The correction comes as optimism grows over a potential trade breakthrough between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, who are scheduled to meet next week. The easing geopolitical tension reduced demand for safe-haven assets, while the dollar’s strength made gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
“Traders have increasingly been looking over their shoulders, as concerns about a correction have arisen,” said Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank. “It’s during corrections that a market’s true strength is revealed — and this time should be no different, with an underlying bid likely keeping any pullback limited.”
Gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed the metal was deep in overbought territory before the selloff, signaling a short-term correction was overdue.
Data Void and Volatility Surge
With the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) unable to release its weekly positioning report amid the government shutdown, traders are flying blind. Without visibility into speculative flows, markets have become more susceptible to outsized moves.
“The absence of positioning data comes at a delicate time,” Hansen noted. “A potential build-up in speculative long exposure in both gold and silver makes them more vulnerable to correction.”
Volatility has surged across the precious metals space. Last week, more than two million options contracts linked to the world’s largest gold-backed ETF changed hands on consecutive days — a record — as traders rushed to hedge or capitalize on price swings.
Silver Follows Gold’s Slide
Silver, which has surged nearly 80% this year, also fell sharply, dropping 7.8% to US$48.38 per ounce. The metal’s gains had been fueled by the same macro drivers lifting gold, alongside a historic squeeze in the London market.
Traders have been shipping silver to London to ease supply tightness, as benchmark prices there exceeded those in New York. Meanwhile, silver inventories in Shanghai and New York both recorded significant outflows, underscoring heightened market strain.
Market Outlook
As of 11:02 a.m. in New York, gold traded at US$4,129.37 an ounce, down 5.2%, while silver extended its decline.
Despite the steep pullback, analysts see this as a healthy correction within a long-term bull market, supported by central bank demand, lower yields, and lingering inflation concerns.
The next test for gold investors: whether bargain hunters step in to “buy the dip” — or if this correction marks the start of a broader retracement in the precious metals rally.
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