Inflation in Tokyo rose faster than expected in October, bolstering expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may continue its gradual path toward monetary policy normalization, while giving the yen a modest lift.
Inflation Surprises to the Upside
Core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, beating the 2.6% median estimate and accelerating from 2.5% in September, data from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.
Core CPI (ex-fresh food): +2.8% YoY
Core-core CPI (ex-fresh food & energy): +2.8% YoY
Headline inflation: +2.8% YoY
The uptick was mainly driven by higher water charges after the end of city subsidies. Meanwhile, prices for energy and processed food edged lower.
The yen strengthened to 153.82 per dollar from 154.17 before the release, as traders priced in a slightly higher probability of a rate hike.
Policy Implications: Gradual Tightening Ahead
Although inflation in Tokyo often leads national trends, Governor Kazuo Ueda remains cautious. Analysts believe the BOJ will assess further data before committing to another rate hike.
“The BOJ is aware of risks that higher rates could slow growth, especially given the uncertainty from Trump’s trade tariffs,” said Taro Saito, head of economic research at NLI Research Institute. “They may wait until January before taking action.”
Bloomberg Economics noted that the stronger-than-expected Tokyo CPI supports the case for an earlier rate increase, as firms continue to raise prices for household goods and services.
Economic Data Roundup
Japan’s broader economic indicators painted a mixed picture:
Industrial production: +2.2% MoM in September (vs. +1.5% expected), +3.4% YoY
Retail sales: +0.3% MoM, +0.5% YoY (below inflation, implying weaker real consumption)
Jobless rate: 2.6% (steady)
Job-to-applicant ratio: 1.20 (unchanged)
While output growth exceeded expectations, consumption remains soft, suggesting households continue to feel the pinch of persistent price increases.
Political and Policy Backdrop
Takaichi, known for her dovish stance, once remarked that it would be “stupid” to raise rates prematurely.
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