Singaporean consumers are growing more confident that inflationary pressures will stay muted over the coming year, with one-year-ahead inflation expectations falling to 3.3% in September 2025, down from 3.5% in June — the lowest level since December 2021, according to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey.
The study, jointly conducted by DBS and the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) at Singapore Management University, was carried out between 23 and 29 September 2025.
Broad-Based Decline Across All Components
Inflation expectations declined across all major spending categories, reflecting a more stable cost outlook.
Food: down from 5% to 3.5%
Transportation: down from 5% to 3.3%
Housing & Utilities: down from 5% to 3%
Healthcare: down from 5% to 3.5%
Education: down from 5% to 3%
Household Durables & Services: down from 5% to 3%
Recreation, Sport & Culture: down from 4% to 3%
Clothing & Footwear: down from 4.3% to 3%
Information & Communications: down from 4% to 2.7%
Miscellaneous Goods & Services (including Personal Care): down from 5% to 3%
The overall aggregated CPI inflation expectation, which accounts for behavioural biases, dropped even more sharply—from 4.9% in June to 3.2% in September.
Researchers said the consistent moderation across all categories shows that despite global uncertainty, consumers expect price increases to remain subdued over the next year.
Mixed Consumer Outlook
While the headline number signals relief, opinions remain split on the inflation trajectory:
37.5% of respondents expect inflation to decline, compared to 50.3% in March.
47.5% believe inflation will increase, up from 42.4% in June.
Those expecting lower inflation cited factors such as:
Uncertainty in global trade policies (30.6%)
The slowdown in global growth (28.6%)
The role of central banks maintaining high interest rates (17.5%)
Meanwhile, respondents who anticipate higher inflation pointed to:
Trade policy uncertainty and potential new tariffs (27.7%)
Increased demand from travel resumption (20.2%)
Higher borrowing costs (19.7%)
Geopolitical conflicts, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine (17.6%)
Key Takeaway
The survey results suggest that Singapore’s inflation expectations are stabilizing, aided by a cooling global economy and tighter monetary policy worldwide. However, consumer sentiment remains cautious, as external risks — from tariffs to geopolitics — continue to cloud the outlook for 2026.
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