The upcoming third-quarter earnings season in the U.S. will begin with the nation’s largest banks, offering a critical gauge of economic health amid a partial government shutdown that has delayed key macro data.
Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 8.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with major banks forecasted to outperform, posting double-digit EPS growth driven by a rebound in investment banking and steady lending.
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report results on Oct 14, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Oct 15.
Key Themes Driving Results
- Investment Banking Recovery:U.S. banks announced 52 M&A deals worth US$16.6 billion in Q3—the most since 2021—supported by greater regulatory clarity and improved corporate confidence. IPO activity also hit its strongest level since late 2021.
- Trading Revenues:Elevated volatility across equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities boosted client trading volumes, particularly for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Net Interest Income:Margins are stabilizing, with NIMs forecast to hold at 2.39% for the group. BAC’s net interest income is projected to grow 3% year-on-year, though lower rates could pressure future yields.
- Credit Quality:Loan-loss provisions are expected to remain flat at US$8.4 billion, with non-performing assets below 1%. Consumer and corporate borrowers remain resilient despite softer sentiment.
Bank-Specific Forecasts
JPMorgan: EPS +9.6% YoY to US$4.79, revenue +6.5% to US$45.4 billion.
Bank of America: EPS +16% YoY to US$0.94, revenue +8.2% to US$27.4 billion.
Citigroup: EPS US$1.76, revenue +3.9% YoY to US$21.1 billion.
Goldman Sachs: EPS +31% YoY to US$11.04, revenue +10.8% to US$14.1 billion.
Morgan Stanley: EPS +11% YoY to US$2.09, revenue +7.9% to US$16.6 billion.
Wells Fargo: EPS +8% YoY to US$1.54, revenue +3.7% to US$21.1 billion.
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