Global chipmaker Intel (INTC.US) will release its third-quarter 2025 earnings after the market closes on Thursday (ET). This will be the first financial update since Intel secured strategic investments from SoftBank, Nvidia, and the U.S. government, drawing intense attention from both investors and competitors.
Options Market Signals: Bullish but Costly Bets
Intel’s options market suggests traders are positioning for a highly volatile upside move.
Put/Call Ratio: 0.67 — indicating strong bullish sentiment, as call options vastly outnumber puts.
Implied Volatility (IV): 78.03%, ranking in the 94th percentile — signaling extremely expensive options pricing.
This combination shows that while traders expect a positive surprise, the bar for Intel to impress is exceptionally high.
Core Financial Expectations
Revenue: US$13.14 billion (▼1% YoY, ▲2% QoQ), slightly above Intel’s guidance midpoint.
Gross Margin: 35.6% GAAP / 36% non-GAAP — a notable YoY improvement due to better cost control.
Net Profit: A GAAP loss of US$1 billion expected (7th consecutive loss), but a non-GAAP profit of US$33.8 million, signaling a modest return to profitability.
Three Key Things to Watch
1. Can Raptor Lake Price Hikes Offset Margin Pressure?
Intel reportedly raised Raptor Lake CPU prices by over 10% to improve margins. However, surging DRAM prices tied to AI demand could weigh on Lunar Lake CPU profitability. The market will be watching whether Intel can maintain gross margin improvements despite higher component costs.
2. Foundry Strategy Revisions Ahead?
3. Data Center Recovery Timeline
Summary
Intel’s Q3 numbers may show limited growth, but strategic clarity—especially regarding foundry plans, AI partnerships, and cost recovery—will be pivotal for investor sentiment.
If Intel’s foundry updates surprise to the upside, U.S. semiconductor equipment suppliers such as KLAC, AMAT, and LRCX could also benefit.
The market’s verdict will depend on whether Intel can prove its turnaround is real — not just funded by outside investors, but driven by execution in chips and margins.
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