US President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, marking a potential shift that could reshape global crude trade and intensify pressure on Moscow’s energy revenues.
India and China are currently the two largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude, taking advantage of steep discounts since Western sanctions on Russia began in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.
“I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he (Modi) assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump told reporters. “That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.”
India Under Pressure to Pivot
India’s Russian oil imports averaged 1.62 million barrels per day in September, about one-third of its total oil imports. For months, New Delhi defended the purchases as essential for energy security, but the latest development suggests a policy turnaround.
Trump recently imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the US, citing India’s continued oil purchases from Russia. The move was designed to pressure New Delhi to cut energy ties with Moscow.
The Indian embassy in Washington has not commented on Trump’s statement.
Wider Diplomatic Push
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington also expects Japan to halt imports of Russian energy, following discussions with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato. The Japanese government has yet to respond.
Trump’s administration is intensifying efforts to isolate Russia economically by leveraging bilateral relationships rather than relying solely on multilateral sanctions.
The push comes shortly after Trump’s new ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, met Modi in New Delhi to discuss defence, trade, and technology cooperation.
Market Impact
Oil prices were muted despite the headline, with Brent crude hovering near five-month lows at US$62 per barrel, weighed by signs of market surplus. Analysts say India’s potential withdrawal from Russian imports could support prices in the medium term, though alternative sourcing from the Middle East and the US could offset the impact.
“A complete halt of Russian oil imports by India would represent a seismic shift in global energy flows,” said an energy strategist at Capital Economics. “But implementation will take time, and lower oil prices are cushioning the transition.”
Investor Takeaway
India’s pledge marks a major geopolitical win for Washington but could temporarily raise import costs for New Delhi.
The move could tighten Russian oil export routes, especially if China faces similar US pressure.
Short-term oil prices may remain volatile as markets digest the evolving US-India energy realignment.
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