A recent major power outage across Klang Valley and Johor has reignited debate about Malaysia’s energy infrastructure resilience, with analysts at CGS International emphasizing that the incident underscores — not undermines — the case for a new power sector capex cycle.
Power Disruption Signals Systemic Stress
CGS noted that the blackout, which originated from the Edra Melaka CCGT plant and was compounded by an unplanned outage at the 1,000MW Tanjung Bin Energy coal plant, exposed vulnerabilities in Malaysia’s power grid.
Together, both plants account for around 13% of Peninsular Malaysia’s total installed generation capacity, highlighting a tight reserve margin and growing system stress.
With electricity demand surging — driven by foreign direct investments (FDI) into electronics, electrical manufacturing, and data centres — Malaysia’s grid is increasingly stretched to its limits.
“Accelerating new power generation capacity and grid upgrades is imperative to ensure system resilience,” CGS wrote.
Capex Cycle Poised for Acceleration
The firm believes this event reinforces the case for Tenaga Nasional Bhd (KL:TENAGA) to deploy its RM16.3 billion contingent capex under Regulatory Period 4 (RP4).
These investments are key not only to meeting immediate reliability needs but also to support renewable energy (RE) integration in line with Malaysia’s broader energy transition (ET) agenda.
CGS expects Tenaga’s combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) projects to play a strategic role in balancing the grid as the nation scales up renewable energy adoption.
Minimal Financial Impact, Long-Term Upside
Despite the disruption, CGS sees limited short-term financial impact for Tenaga. Electricity was restored swiftly, and key operational metrics — including the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) — remained within regulatory thresholds.
However, CGS believes the market still undervalues Tenaga’s earnings potential tied to RP4’s capex uplift, which is central to its positive investment thesis on the utility giant.
Analyst View
CGS reiterated its “Add” rating on Tenaga Nasional (KL:TENAGA), maintaining a sum-of-parts-based target price of RM18.00.
The firm expects Tenaga to emerge stronger in the medium term, supported by:
Accelerated infrastructure spending under RP4
Long-term renewable integration efforts
Stable regulatory returns from grid modernization
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