Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said that escalating US-China trade tensions have heightened downside risks to economic growth — making it more urgent for the Fed to cut rates quickly.
“There’s now more downside risks than there was a week ago, and it’s incumbent upon us as policymakers to reflect that in policy,” Miran said at a CNBC event on Wednesday.
He described the renewed trade conflict as a “new tail risk” for the global economy, underscoring that recent developments have tilted the balance of risks toward weaker growth.
Push for Faster Easing
Miran reiterated his preference for faster and deeper rate cuts, saying it’s “even more urgent” to move policy to a neutral level.
“I wouldn’t say I want lower rates than a week ago, but I want to get there faster,” he said.
He has previously argued for a 125-basis-point reduction in the Fed’s benchmark rate by year-end — well beyond the two quarter-point cuts projected by the median Fed forecast for 2025.
Miran said expecting two more cuts this year remains “realistic.”
Trade War Adds to Downside Risks
The heightened tensions have revived fears of supply disruptions and weaker corporate investment — key factors influencing the Fed’s near-term policy path.
Fed Path Forward
Miran’s remarks echo Chair Jerome Powell’s signal earlier this week that another quarter-point cut is likely at the upcoming FOMC meeting, citing softer labor data and persistent inflation above target.
Despite recent criticism over his temporary move from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) to the Fed, Miran defended his independence, noting that such cross-appointments “long predate” the current administration.
Investor Takeaway
Policy bias: Miran reinforces the Fed’s dovish tilt amid trade-driven uncertainty.
Rate expectations: Markets are now pricing in two to three more cuts by December.
Market impact: Easing bets have supported equities and weighed on the US dollar, while gold remains near record highs above US$4,200.
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