Japan’s exports rose for the first time in five months in September, lifted by a weak yen that offset ongoing US tariff pressures. However, economists warned that the recovery may be short-lived as the effects of recent tariff changes continue to ripple through key industries.
Exports Boosted by Yen Weakness
Total exports increased 4.2% year-on-year in September, ending a four-month slump. The gain came slightly below economists’ forecast of a 4.6% rise and followed a 0.1% decline in August. Analysts attributed the improvement largely to the yen’s depreciation, which made Japanese goods cheaper overseas.
Despite the rebound, shipments to the United States plunged 13.3%, marking the sixth straight month of decline. Auto exports fell 24.2%, while chipmaking equipment exports dropped 45.7%. Exports to China, by contrast, rose 5.8%, supported by stronger demand for vehicles and manufacturing materials. Shipments to the rest of Asia climbed 9.2%.
Tariff Relief Offers Limited Support
A recent US-Japan trade deal reduced most tariffs on Japanese imports to 15%, down from 27.5% on autos, offering temporary relief to automakers. Still, many firms continue to absorb part of the tariff costs by cutting prices, which has squeezed profits and raised concerns about investment and wage growth.
Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, said the tariff impact “has not fully materialised yet” and warned that “if Japanese exporters begin passing on higher costs, it could further drag down export volumes.”
Trade Deficit Persists
Imports rose 3.3% from a year earlier, exceeding forecasts for a 0.6% gain. As a result, Japan recorded a ¥234.6 billion (US$1.56 billion) trade deficit, contrary to expectations for a surplus.
BOJ Watching Closely
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is monitoring export and wage trends to gauge whether companies can withstand tariff pressures while sustaining domestic spending. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the central bank’s willingness to continue raising rates if evidence of corporate resilience and wage growth strengthens.
“The question is whether the strong momentum can be maintained,” Minami said. “That will have a significant influence on consumption trends and future monetary policy.”
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