$TSMC (TSM.US)$ is expected to post another blockbuster quarter as AI-driven chip demand propels earnings to record highs, reinforcing its dominance in the global semiconductor landscape. However, rising US tariffs and production policy tensions could complicate its medium-term outlook.
AI Boom Pushes TSMC Toward Record Profit
According to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 20 analysts, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is projected to deliver a 28% year-on-year surge in Q3 net profit to 415.4 billion (US$13.6 billion) — a new all-time high for the chipmaker.
Revenue Growth: +30% YoY, exceeding market expectations.
Profit Benchmark: Any figure above T$398.3 billion will mark TSMC’s highest-ever quarterly profit and its seventh straight quarter of earnings growth.
Valuation: With a market cap of around US$1.2 trillion, TSMC remains Asia’s most valuable listed company, nearly three times larger than Samsung Electronics (005930.KR).
The company’s stellar performance underscores the global AI infrastructure boom, which continues to drive strong chip orders from major clients including $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $Apple (AAPL.US)$.
Earnings Call and Sector Context
TSMC will announce detailed financial results and provide Q4 guidance in its earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT on Thursday.
Its industry peers are also enjoying tailwinds:
ASML (ASML.US) — TSMC’s key lithography equipment supplier — reported stronger-than-expected Q3 bookings, but warned of weaker China demand in 2026.
Samsung Electronics (005930.KR) expects its best quarterly profit in over three years, driven by surging AI chip shipments.
Trade Tensions and Production Pressure
While AI demand remains a powerful growth engine, US trade policies could create new uncertainties.
Tariff Exposure: Taiwan’s exports to the US currently face a 20% tariff, though semiconductors remain exemptfor now.
Production Split Proposal: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has suggested Taiwanese chipmakers split production 50-50 between Taiwan and the US — a plan that Taiwan has firmly rejected.
TSMC has already committed US$165 billion to expand its manufacturing footprint in Arizona, signalling partial compliance while maintaining a strong domestic base.
Market Performance
TSMC’s stock has climbed 36% year-to-date, outpacing both the PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US) and the Taiwan Weighted Index (TAIEX), which is up 18% in 2025. The rally reflects investor confidence in AI-driven chip demand, despite geopolitical headwinds.
Investor Takeaway: AI Demand Offsets Policy Uncertainty
TSMC continues to serve as the core engine of the global AI supply chain, supported by high-margin advanced node production and robust customer pipelines.
Key Watchpoints for Investors:
Q4 outlook for AI chip demand and capacity utilization.
US policy updates on tariffs and local production requirements.
Capital allocation for US and Taiwan fabs as part of its US$165 billion investment roadmap.
Despite tariff risks, AI remains the dominant story, and TSMC’s leadership in 3nm and upcoming 2nm chips positions it to extend its earnings momentum well into 2026.
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