What happened:
Citi says Pop Mart’s sales outlook has improved on the back of stronger IP performance. 3Q revenue beat expectations, driven by faster sell-through of new products globally and retailer restocking. Momentum should carry into the festive season, though growth may moderate on a higher base.
Citi’s call:
Rating: Buy (reiterated)
Target price: HK$415 (from HK$398)
Rationale: Continued investment in products, content, and collaborations is deepening IP influence (e.g., Labubu), supporting both China and overseas demand.
Stock check:
Last: HK$262 (up ~4.6% intraday)
Implied upside to TP: ~58% (HK$415 vs HK$262)
Why it matters (quick take):
IP strength = pricing power + repeat purchases. Pop Mart’s flywheel (new drops → scarcity → community buzz) looks intact.
Restocking suggests channel confidence and cleaner inventories heading into holidays.
Overseas traction is becoming a second engine, reducing reliance on China footfall.
What to watch next:
Holiday sell-through and limited-edition drop cadence
Gross margin trend (mix of blind boxes vs collaborations/licensing)
Overseas contribution growth and store rollout efficiency
Any signs of IP fatigue or slower repeat rates as comps toughen
Key risks: Consumer softness in China, base-effect normalization post-restock, execution on new IPs, and FX for overseas revenue.
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