Summary:
US online holiday sales are projected to rise 5.3% year-on-year to US$253.4 billion (RM1.07 trillion) this November–December, according to Adobe Analytics. The growth will be primarily driven by Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage, offsetting headwinds from a weaker labour market and tariff-induced price increases.
Key Highlights
1. Slower Growth Amid Economic Strain
Online spending growth is expected to moderate from 8.7% in 2024 to 5.3% this year as consumers face higher prices and tightening household budgets. Tariffs and slower wage growth have prompted households to spend more cautiously, with overall holiday budgets projected to be smaller.
2. BNPL Drives Incremental Demand
Adobe projects US$20.2 billion in holiday purchases will be made via BNPL options, an 11% increase year-on-year, more than double the pace of total online spending growth.
BNPL providers such as Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US) and Klarna Group continue to gain market share as financially stretched consumers leverage installment-based payments for discretionary purchases. Retail giants Amazon.com (AMZN.US) and Walmart (WMT.US) have integrated BNPL options across major product categories.
3. Younger and Lower-Income Shoppers Lead Adoption
Adobe analyst Vivek Pandya noted that BNPL resonates particularly with younger and lower-credit-score consumers seeking flexibility amid tighter financial conditions. The financing model has become a key spending enabler during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.
E-Commerce Trends
AI-Driven Search and Social Commerce Growth
Influencer marketing and artificial intelligence are expected to play a greater role in holiday shopping behavior.
AI-powered chatbots and search tools are leading to higher engagement and longer browsing sessions.
Social media influencers on platforms such as TikTok and Instagram are enhancing product discovery, particularly in the toys, electronics, and jewellery segments.
Retailers employing AI-based recommendation engines report higher conversion rates compared to traditional advertising channels.
Outlook
While online sales will set a new record, the slower pace of growth highlights consumer caution amid mounting financial pressures. The expanding adoption of BNPL and AI-driven retail technologies demonstrates that technology and alternative credit models are sustaining demand, even as real income growth moderates.
Key beneficiaries:
Fintechs: Affirm (AFRM.US), PayPal (PYPL.US)
Retailers: Amazon (AMZN.US), Walmart (WMT.US)
AI and analytics firms: Adobe (ADBE.US)
Analyst’s View:
Online retail activity remains resilient, but the composition of growth is shifting. Debt-fueled consumption and reliance on installment financing suggest underlying weakness in household finances. However, ongoing digital transformation—through AI integration and social commerce—could support revenue momentum through year-end.
Comments
Post a Comment