US stocks continued their record-setting rally on July 24, lifted by growing hopes for a US-EU trade deal and the recent breakthrough agreement with Japan. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high, while demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries and the dollar slipped.
Key Market Drivers:
- US-EU Trade Talks ProgressingDiplomats are working to finalize a deal that would impose a 15% tariff baseline, avoiding the more punitive 30% rate expected August 1. The Japan deal—featuring billions in investments and tariff relief—has become a blueprint for EU negotiations.
- Strong Market SentimentAnalysts note low volatility and rising prices—a “don’t short a dull tape” environment, according to Nationwide’s Mark Hackett.Jose Torres (Interactive Brokers) says “animal spirits” are back, as trade progress is fueling earnings optimism.
Mixed Earnings After-Hours
Alphabet beat revenue estimates but flagged higher capex.
Tesla missed expectations.
Bond Market Reaction
10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.39%, breaking a five-day rally.
Weak demand seen in Japan’s 40-year bond auction—the lowest since 2011.
Traders are now pricing in 75bps of Fed rate cuts for 2026 (vs. 25bps in April).
Institutional Outlook
BMO: Trade clarity could reignite market confidence.
JPMorgan: Warns of complacency risk as equity rallies coincide with earnings downgrades.
Navellier & Associates: Despite high valuations, the trend is positive, with tech expected to lead this earnings season.
“Earnings continue to deliver better-than-average beats,” says Louis Navellier.
Investor Takeaway:
Short-term catalyst: EU trade deal optimism + earnings beats = upside.
Medium-term focus: Rate cut bets are back in play. Bond traders are positioning for more aggressive Fed easingin 2026.
Risk: Market could be ignoring the gap between sentiment and fundamentals, leading to possible volatility.
Bottom Line: The rally still has legs if trade talks succeed and earnings hold up—but complacency is creeping in. Stay selective and watch macro headlines closely.
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