Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries Expected to Disappoint Again — But Is the Worst Behind?

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to release its Q2 2025 delivery figures this week, and market expectations are signaling another underwhelming quarter. Yet, with recent developments in autonomy and the rollout of its Robotaxi service, the stock narrative is beginning to decouple from traditional auto metrics — raising key questions around where valuation truly lies.

Q2 Expectations: Modest Sequential Recovery, Weak Y/Y

Consensus estimates suggest Q2 deliveries will come in at ~393,000 vehicles, a double-digit year-over-year declinefrom the 444,000 units delivered in Q2 2024. However, it still represents a 17% rebound from Q1's weak result of 336,681 vehicles.

Several banks have revised down their projections:

• Baird: 377,000 units

• Barclays: 375,000 units

• UBS: 366,000 units

Demand challenges remain pronounced, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, where political sentiment has shifted partly due to CEO Elon Musk’s close alignment with the Trump administration. TSLA shares are down ~20% YTD, reflecting both weaker operational performance and ongoing valuation reassessment.

Robotaxi: From Vision to Execution

Despite muted delivery figures, investor sentiment has shifted toward Tesla’s AI-driven future. On June 22, Tesla launched its robotaxi service, followed by a successful autonomous vehicle delivery on June 27 — with a Model Y completing a fully driverless handoff in Austin, Texas.

This moment, shared widely across social media, underscored Musk’s long-held belief that Tesla is an AI company first, automaker second. The firm’s growing focus on robotics and autonomy could gradually reposition the stock in investors' minds — away from volume metrics and toward future optionality.

Wall Street’s View: Diverging Paths

Analyst	Rating	Target Price	Key Commentary
UBS	Sell	$215	Robotaxi buzz may overshadow weak fundamentals; auto still drives cash flow.
Barclays	Neutral	N/A	H1 delivery slump priced in; affordable model may drive H2 recovery.
Deepwater	Bullish	N/A	Q2 may mark the trough; delivery rebound expected in H2 2025.

While UBS remains cautious, highlighting that the core auto business still underpins Tesla’s valuation, other strategists argue that Q2 may represent an inflection point — with upside optionality in H2 hinging on the rollout of a more affordable model and autonomous services.

Seasonality Could Provide a Boost

Historically, July has been a strong month for Tesla — with the stock rising in 7 of the last 10 years, including +32% in July 2020 and 2022, and +17% in July 2024. With a weak Q2 potentially already priced in and strong AI narrative momentum, some investors are preparing for a seasonal rally.

Bottom Line: Delivery Miss, or Transition Milestone?

Tesla’s Q2 may disappoint traditional metrics — but the market’s focus is evolving. For long-term investors, the bigger question is not whether deliveries recover, but how quickly Tesla can monetize autonomy and AI to justify its premium valuation.

Near-term catalysts include:

• Q2 earnings and gross margin update

• Full robotaxi rollout roadmap

• Progress on the sub-$30K model

• Any signs of margin resilience amidst price cuts

In the short term, volatility may remain elevated, but for believers in Musk’s AI-first roadmap, Tesla’s valuation thesis is shifting — from vehicles sold to intelligence deployed.