Malaysia’s inflation outlook continues to soften, with OCBC Bank revising its 2025 headline CPI forecast down to 1.5%, from an earlier 2.0%, following a softer-than-expected June reading.
Key Highlights:
June 2025 Inflation: Headline inflation eased to 1.1% YoY, down from 1.2% in May and below consensus expectations.
Core Inflation: Held steady at 1.8% YoY.
Deflationary Pressure: Transportation inflation slowed to 0.3%, while communication services saw deeper deflation at -5.4%.
Flat Categories: Food, utilities, education, and insurance inflation remained unchanged.
What’s Driving the Forecast Revision?
OCBC’s downward revision is attributed to:
Weaker-than-expected H1 inflation (1.4% average).
Unlikely near-term rationalisation of RON95 fuel subsidies, which were previously expected to rise 20–25% by October.
Economic Outlook:
With GDP growth expected to moderate to 3.5% YoY in H2 2025 (vs. 4.4% in H1), and inflation staying subdued, OCBC believes there’s scope for further monetary easing.
Forecast: Another 25bps OPR cut by Bank Negara Malaysia in the coming months.
BNM’s current OPR: 2.75% (after a 25bps cut on July 9).
Next policy meetings: September 4 and November 6, offering potential windows for further cuts.
Comments
Post a Comment