Key Takeaways:
BLS revision: US employment from April 2024–March 2025 was revised down by 911,000 jobs, highlighting weaker labor momentum than initially reported.
Broader context: The downgrade follows sharp downward revisions in May and June, when job losses totaled 258,000.
Policy implications: Economists see limited impact on near-term Fed policy, with markets still expecting a rate cut next week.
Political backdrop: Tensions rise as President Trump dismissed the BLS commissioner, raising concerns over the independence of US economic data.
Major Payroll Revision Underscores Slowdown
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday that US payrolls expanded by 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than previously estimated. This adjustment, based on more comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records (QCEW), points to a labor market that was already stalling before the latest tariff-related disruptions.
The previous 12-month period ending March 2024 was also revised down by 598,000 jobs, signaling consistent overestimation of hiring trends in recent years.
Weakness Emerging Before Tariffs and Policy Shifts
The revision comes on the heels of disappointing August employment data, which showed near-stalled job growth, and the first monthly job losses in over four years in June. Beyond trade policy uncertainty, labor supply has also been squeezed by tighter immigration rules, while businesses are increasingly adopting AI and automation—reducing demand for workers in traditional roles.
Fed Policy: Cuts Still Expected
Despite the downward revisions, most economists believe the Fed will proceed with rate cuts next week, resuming an easing cycle that was paused in January. With inflation moderating and growth data softening, markets are debating the size of the cut—25bps is priced in, with a rising probability of 50bps.
Political Pressure on Data Integrity
The revisions have triggered political fallout. President Trump recently fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, alleging without evidence that employment data was manipulated. His nominee, EJ Antoni, has previously suggested suspending the monthly jobs report, sparking widespread concern among economists.
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) issued a statement urging policymakers to safeguard the BLS’s independence, stressing the importance of “accurate, independent, and trusted” statistics for global credibility.
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