Key Takeaway
The Straits Times Index (STI) climbed to an all-time peak of 4,301.63 on Sept 4, extending its YTD gain to +13.5%. Dovish global monetary expectations and supportive domestic policies are fueling momentum, with banks, telecoms, and S-REITs leading the charge.
Market Drivers
Global Tailwinds: Fed & ECB rate cut expectations driving flows into rate-sensitive assets.
Policy Support: MAS’s S$5B Securities Market Development Plan boosting liquidity and investor confidence.
Sector Rotation: Banks and REITs benefiting from narrowing yield spreads.
Market Leaders (Last 20 Trading Days)
Singtel (Z74.SG): +9.5%, supported by yield appeal and FCF strength.
YZJ Shipbuilding (BS6.SG): +8.1%, on stronger order flows.
Jardine C&C (C07.SG): +7.6%, on rising consumer confidence.
Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB): Contributed 0.6–1.4% each to STI’s latest 5-day rise as net interest margin outlook improves.
Telecoms (Singtel, StarHub): Defensive yields attracting inflows.
Sector Upgrades & Outlook
Banks: Net interest margins stabilizing; expected recovery into FY25–26.
S-REITs: Benefiting from lower bond yields; resilient cash flows and diversified portfolios.
Telecommunications: Strong FCF, dividend support in uncertain environment.
Small & Mid-Caps: Select plays (BRC Asia, CAO, CSE Global, Food Empire, Frencken, LHN, UMS) offering earnings growth + dividends.
Property & Construction: Land bank monetization and infrastructure pipeline driving upside.
Valuation Snapshot
Forward P/E: 14.8x (below historical mean of 16.7x).
Dividend Yield: 4.2% (among most attractive in Asia).
ROE: 12.3%.
Net Debt: Declining from 25.2% → 17.5% (ex-banks) over next 2 years.
Earnings Outlook
FY2025 Core Profit Growth: +4.6%.
FY2026 Forecast: Accelerates to +7.2% as headwinds ease.
Earnings Misses: Concentrated in trading revenues, lower NIMs earlier in year.
Guidance: Managements largely reaffirm full-year outlook.
Investor Watch
Overweight: Banks, Telecoms, S-REITs.
Alpha Ideas: Select small/mid-caps with niche leadership.
Macro Lens: Singapore equities remain undervalued vs history; supportive policy and dovish global backdrop could extend rally into year-end.
Risk: External shocks (tariffs, global slowdown) but strong domestic liquidity buffers downside.
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