Key Takeaway
Global equities stabilized Thursday as dovish Fed commentary and smooth Japanese bond issuance calmed recent rate volatility. While China’s sell-off weighed on Asian sentiment, Europe and U.S. futures signaled resilience ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
Market Snapshot
STOXX 600: +0.3%
MSCI Asia ex-Japan: –0.2%
Nikkei 225: +1.5%
Australia ASX 200: +1%
India Sensex: +1% (post-levy cuts)
U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: 4.2% (↓)
U.S. 2Y Treasury yield: 3.6% (flat)
Brent crude: –0.6% at $67.17
Gold: –0.8% at $3,578.50 (off record highs)
Dollar Index: flat; USD/JPY 148.25; EUR/USD $1.1650
Drivers of the Rebound
Fed Rate Cut Bets: Futures now price a near-100% chance of a 25bp cut on Sept 17, supporting equities and bonds.
Japan Debt Auction: Smooth 30-year JGB issuance helped calm global bond jitters.
China Cooldown: Regulators considering market curbs triggered a 6% drop in STAR50 index, but spillover was contained.
Policy Moves Elsewhere:
India: Tax cuts to counter U.S. tariffs boosted Sensex.
Australia: Dip-buyers lifted ASX after sharp sell-off.
Analyst Commentary
MUFG (Halpenny): Fed cut bets put “modest downward pressure” on yields; China weakness hit AUD/NZD, but broader FX calm.
Deutsche Bank (Jim Reid): Notes Fed independence in focus as Trump nominates Stephen Miran; markets watching Senate testimony closely.
ING: Beige Book viewed as “bleak,” underscoring tariff risks.
IG (Sycamore): “Dip-buyers have stepped in” after recent weakness in Asia.
Risks to Watch
U.S. Payrolls (Sept 5): Critical for confirming Fed path; consensus ~75k jobs, 4.3% unemployment.
Fed Independence: Trump’s repeated pressure on Powell, moves against Fed officials, could weigh on credibility.
Oil Supply Risks: OPEC+ eyeing output hike could cap crude prices further.
China Policy Shifts: Any new curbs on speculation could pressure tech-heavy indices again.
Investor Takeaway
Near-term: Expect calm consolidation until U.S. payrolls Friday; Fed cut odds anchored.
Equities: U.S. futures positive, dip-buying theme holding in Asia-Pacific.
Bonds: Yields drifting lower; demand for long-term paper stable.
FX: USD range-bound; watch JPY if risk-off returns.
Commodities: Oil weak on OPEC+ supply concerns; gold cooling but remains elevated as a hedge.
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