Key Takeaways:
Fed in focus: Markets increasingly price in a 25bps cut next week, with odds of a 50bps cut rising to 11% after weak U.S. jobs data.
European resilience: STOXX 600 edged up 0.1%, shrugging off French government collapse.
FX & bonds: The euro hit a 6-week high before easing, while U.S. Treasury yields remain near multi-month lows.
Commodities: Gold hit a record US$3,659/oz, oil climbed on a modest OPEC+ supply boost.
Markets Look Past France, Focus on Fed
European and Asian equities stayed upbeat Tuesday, with STOXX 600 up 0.1% and MSCI Asia +0.9%, as investors shifted attention from political upheaval in France to expectations of U.S. rate cuts.
France’s government collapsed after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a no-confidence vote (364–194), but the outcome was widely expected. President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out a snap election, easing near-term risks. French 10-year yields rose slightly to 3.489%, broadly in line with peers.
“Markets are shrugging off the French situation as low tail-risk,” said Carmignac’s Kevin Thozet, noting that only an early presidential election would seriously unsettle investors.
Fed Cut Bets Drive Rally
The real driver remains the U.S. Federal Reserve. Following Friday’s soft payrolls report, traders now see a 25bps cut next week as a done deal, with CME FedWatch showing 11% odds of a 50bps move, up from zero a week ago.
Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data will guide expectations, while a Labor Department jobs revision later today could further strengthen the dovish tilt.
“The Fed could revise down up to 750,000 jobs from payrolls—any large revision only cements the case for cuts,” said Michael Brown at Pepperstone.
Asia Headlines: Japan, Indonesia, Argentina in Focus
Japan’s Nikkei crossed 44,000 for the first time, supported by a weaker yen and PM Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation. U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars and auto parts will be cut by Sept 16.
Indonesia’s markets slumped after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani’s exit, sparking capital outflow concerns.
Argentina’s ruling party suffered election losses, adding to global political noise.
Despite the turbulence, currencies held relatively steady, with the yen strengthening 0.4% to 146.90, and the dollar broadly weaker.
Commodities: Gold & Oil Shine
Gold surged to a fresh record US$3,659/oz, boosted by Fed easing bets and a weaker dollar.
Brent crude rose 1.1% to US$66.23/bbl, after OPEC+ announced smaller-than-expected supply increases.
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