Key Takeaway: Canadian aluminium producers are diverting shipments from the U.S. to Europe after President Trump reinstated and later doubled tariffs on imports, pushing U.S. aluminium prices to record premiums.
Export Shift
Quebec aluminium exports (Q2 2025):
U.S.: Fell to 78% of shipments (vs. 95% in Q1)
Europe: Jumped to 18% of shipments (vs. just 0.2% in Q1)
Quebec accounts for ~90% of Canada’s aluminium capacity, making the U.S. its traditional main buyer due to proximity.
Producer Responses
Alcoa Corp: Diverted 100,000 metric tons of Canadian aluminium away from the U.S. in Q2, sending more to Europe.
Aluminerie Alouette (40% Rio-owned): Sent 57% of Q2 output to Europe, compared with 4% in Q1.
Rio Tinto: Declined shipment data but has reportedly curbed U.S. exports, instead reselling rivals’ supplies to American buyers to bypass tariffs.
Market Impact
U.S. Midwest premium: Up 82% since June, pushing U.S. aluminium prices well above global benchmarks.
Europe Rotterdam premium: Fell from 14.3% of LME benchmark (start of year) to 9.1% last week, reflecting higher supply inflows.
Outlook
Analysts warn the current trade flows could mark either:
A short-term adjustment to U.S. tariffs, or
A paradigm shift, where Europe increasingly absorbs Canadian shipments that would otherwise head south.
Jason Kaplan of S&P Global noted concerns that diverted Chinese aluminium might flood Europe, but said the recent surge suggests Canadian exports are filling the gap instead.
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