Key Takeaway
Asian stocks recovered on Thursday after Federal Reserve officials hinted at upcoming rate cuts, calming nerves from a bond market selloff. Softer U.S. jobs data also reinforced expectations of easing.
Market Snapshot
MSCI Asia ex-Japan: +0.5%
Australia (ASX 200): +0.7%, rebounding from worst drop since April
Japan (Nikkei 225): +1.2% at open
China (Shanghai Composite): –0.4%, tracking third straight decline on regulatory cooling measures
Driving Factors
Fed Support for Cuts:
Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled backing for rate cuts in coming months.
Stephen Miran (Trump’s Fed Board nominee) emphasized commitment to central bank independence.
Jobs Data: Weak JOLTS job openings reinforced bets on a September cut.
Beige Book: Painted a mixed U.S. economic outlook, with tariff-related price risks noted.
Bond & Currency Moves
U.S. Treasuries:
10-year yield at 4.2129% (vs. 4.211% prior close)
2-year yield at 3.6166% (vs. 3.612% prior close)
Currencies:
USD/JPY: 147.98 (–0.1%)
EUR/USD: Flat at 1.1657
DXY: Unchanged at 98.153
Commodities
Brent crude: –0.5% at USD 67.29/bbl
Gold: –0.2% at USD 3,552.49/oz, after record high on Wednesday
Analyst Commentary
IG’s Tony Sycamore: Dip-buyers view September weakness as an opportunity, with economic resilience supporting equities.
ING Analysts: Beige Book was “bleak” and “littered with tariff warnings,” underscoring Fed concerns.
Investor Watch
Equities: Fed dovish tilt supports near-term rebound; watch Chinese markets as regulatory pressure weighs.
Bonds: Yields remain near highs; upcoming JGB auction to test global demand for long-dated debt.
FX: Dollar range-bound; yen strength limited by U.S. rate cut expectations.
Commodities: Oil and gold softening after recent highs — caution on volatility ahead of U.S. payrolls.
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