China could raise its fiscal deficit ratio to a record high, potentially signaling its commitment to achieving this year’s growth target of around 5%, according to economist Jia Kang. Jia, a former head of a Ministry of Finance-affiliated research institute, suggested that the fiscal deficit could be capped at around 4% of GDP, up from the current 3%.
Such a move could unlock between 4 trillion yuan ($570 billion) and 10 trillion yuan in stimulus, combining both government and private investment. This would complement the series of recent measures aimed at reviving demand in the world’s second-largest economy, which have included interest rate cuts, property market support, and even cash handouts.
The possible increase in public spending has fueled optimism in the Chinese stock market, which has rallied significantly. Investors are now closely watching the next steps from the Ministry of Finance, as expectations for additional fiscal support grow.
Economists warn that Beijing may need to act more aggressively to overcome challenges in the property sector and sustain long-term growth. With 43 million housing units in inventory and another eight million under construction, the property market remains a significant barrier to reviving consumption and economic expansion.
If China does raise the deficit-to-GDP ratio above 3%, it would break from the country's long-standing fiscal discipline, signaling a more proactive approach to addressing the economic slowdown.

Comments
Post a Comment