Japanese stocks surged on Monday as the yen dropped to a three-month low after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election. The outcome has raised uncertainty over Japan's future economic policies and potential political instability.
Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, secured only 215 seats in the lower house, falling short of the 233 needed for a majority. The LDP previously held 247 seats, with Komeito holding 32. The result has prompted concerns about possible power-sharing agreements and fractious politics ahead.
Despite the political uncertainty, the Nikkei share average rose 1.45% to 38,463.50, buoyed by a weaker yen, which benefits Japan's export-heavy economy. Earlier in the session, the index had climbed nearly 2% after opening 0.4% lower.
The yen fell as much as 153.885 per dollar, its lowest since July 31, before stabilizing around 153.60 per dollar by 0230 GMT.
"The election result is undoubtedly negative for the stock market because of the rise in political uncertainty," said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. "However, the rally is driven by relief that the election is behind us and the benefit of a weaker yen, which supports exporters."
Export sectors led the rally, with the transport equipment industry outperforming other sectors. Toyota surged nearly 4%, while Nissan climbed 3.3%. Chip-sector stocks also rallied, following gains in the US, with Advantest surging 4.7%.
Still, some analysts remain cautious. "I don’t expect the rally will continue," said Norihiro Yamaguchi, senior Japan economist at Oxford Economics, pointing to ongoing political uncertainty.
Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year government bond yield adding 1.5 basis points to 0.96%, reflecting concerns over looser fiscal management and the potential for more aggressive government spending under future coalitions.
As markets brace for further uncertainty, analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that the coalition losses could reduce the likelihood of challenging reforms, such as corporate tax hikes. Meanwhile, analysts at BNY suggested that the dollar could potentially rise to 155 yen, as the Bank of Japan maintains its dovish stance on interest rates ahead of Thursday's policy meeting.
This election comes just days before the highly anticipated US presidential race, with investors assessing the potential impact of a stronger dollar and higher yields if Donald Trump secures another term.
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