The US labour market showed signs of a steady slowdown in October, with job openings increasing moderately and layoffs declining, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Job openings, a key indicator of labour demand, rose by 372,000 to 7.744 million at the end of October. However, the September figures were revised downward to 7.372 million from the initially reported 7.443 million. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated 7.475 million vacancies. Labour Market Dynamics While job openings increased, hires dropped by 269,000 to 5.313 million, and layoffs fell by 169,000 to 1.633 million. These figures suggest a gradual cooling of the labour market rather than a sharp contraction. Hurricanes and strikes also impacted October’s labour market data. Rebuilding efforts in storm-affected regions and the resolution of strikes at Boeing and another aerospace company are expected to contribute to a ...
Survey Shows American Wealth Set to Grow Under Either Trump or Harris, With Stocks Expected to Benefit
A recent Bloomberg survey reveals that the wealth of American investors is poised to grow, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the upcoming November 5 election. The survey suggests that stocks are expected to perform well under both candidates, though Trump is viewed as more favorable for Bitcoin and gold, while a Harris presidency could provide a slight relief in housing costs.
According to the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, 38% of respondents believe stock market gains will accelerate under Trump, compared to 13% who anticipate the same under Harris. Still, nearly half of investors expect the stock market to continue its strong performance under the Democratic candidate, with 59% predicting similar results under Trump.
Historical data shows that US elections tend to have a limited long-term effect on the markets. Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, led by Jim Reid, note that 13 of the last 15 US presidents saw annualized stock returns of between 10% and 17%, regardless of party affiliation. In fact, the S&P 500 has historically tended to rally by 6.6% on average in the six months following an election.
In terms of housing, Harris is seen as having a more favorable impact on mortgage rates. Survey participants estimate that mortgage rates could fall to 5.5% under Harris, compared to 5.9% under Trump. With mortgage rates currently at 6.54%, many potential buyers have been waiting for borrowing costs to decrease, as high rates have strained housing affordability.
Meanwhile, gold, a popular haven asset, is expected to rally further under Trump, with 57% of survey respondents anticipating higher gold prices compared to 45% under Harris. Bitcoin is also forecast to hit a new record above $80,000 if Trump wins, while under Harris, it is expected to reach $65,000.
The survey, conducted from October 21-25, involved 350 respondents, including portfolio managers, economists, and retail investors.
source: bloomberg
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