The US labour market showed signs of a steady slowdown in October, with job openings increasing moderately and layoffs declining, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Job openings, a key indicator of labour demand, rose by 372,000 to 7.744 million at the end of October. However, the September figures were revised downward to 7.372 million from the initially reported 7.443 million. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated 7.475 million vacancies. Labour Market Dynamics While job openings increased, hires dropped by 269,000 to 5.313 million, and layoffs fell by 169,000 to 1.633 million. These figures suggest a gradual cooling of the labour market rather than a sharp contraction. Hurricanes and strikes also impacted October’s labour market data. Rebuilding efforts in storm-affected regions and the resolution of strikes at Boeing and another aerospace company are expected to contribute to a ...
Wall Street’s top executives gathered at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative this week, where they expressed optimism about the US economy but voiced concerns about Europe’s slower growth. Among the attendees were Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, and Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon, who have become regular participants at the kingdom’s annual event.
“The US economy is doing quite well, it has been very resilient,” said Solomon, noting his expectation for a “soft landing” in the US, marking a stark contrast to the previous years when fears of a recession dominated discussions.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded the US growth forecast to 2.8% for 2024, while the eurozone is expected to grow by just 0.8%, and the UK by 1.1%.
Despite the upbeat outlook for the US, many executives cautioned that market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts could be overestimated. None of the top executives at the event, including leaders from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Carlyle Group, anticipated two additional cuts this year, though some suggested there could be one more reduction by the end of 2024.
Concerns about European growth were a recurring theme. Standard Chartered's CEO Bill Winters highlighted that much of Europe’s corporate profit growth is coming from markets outside the continent, describing this as a “structural problem.” Solomon also expressed unease about China’s economic situation, compounding fears of global stagnation.
In addition to economic concerns, geopolitical risks are intensifying. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and growing trade protectionism were all cited as escalating threats to global stability. The upcoming US election on November 5, which features a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, also adds to the uncertainty.
“The expectation today is that Donald Trump will win the White House,” said Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, noting the race remains a “coin toss.”
The outcome of the election is expected to have significant implications for US monetary policy in 2025, with Goldman’s Solomon emphasizing the difficulty of planning future policy until after the election results are clear.
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