Oil prices continued their decline for a second consecutive day, as signs of potential diplomatic progress in Israel's conflict with Lebanon overshadowed expectations for a massive stimulus package from China.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.3%, settling near $67 per barrel after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans for a meeting focused on a diplomatic resolution to the Lebanon conflict. Earlier in the day, WTI had risen by as much as 1.7% on reports that China was considering 10 trillion yuan (about $1.4 trillion) in fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell 0.4%, settling around $71 per barrel.
The recent decline comes as the geopolitical war premium on crude has eased, particularly with Israel signaling openness to a temporary truce in Gaza. This shift has brought attention back to market fundamentals, as the oil market enters a critical period that includes a tight US presidential election and the planned unwinding of voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ starting in December.
According to Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, traders now believe that this phase of the Middle East conflict is winding down, shifting focus back to OPEC’s upcoming decisions on production cuts.
Market indicators also reflect a cooling of war-related concerns. The premium on bullish oil call options over bearish puts has decreased significantly, and a gauge of implied volatility for Brent has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month.
Beyond geopolitical factors, the US Energy Department announced plans to add three million barrels of oil to its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Additionally, a series of US economic reports due this week, including growth and employment data, could provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts.
Oil Prices (as of Monday's close):
- WTI for December delivery: $67.21 per barrel (down 0.3%)
- Brent for December settlement: $71.12 per barrel (down 0.4%)
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