The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Malaysia's producer price index (PPI), which tracks price changes of goods at the producer level, declined by 2.1% year-on-year in September, marking a downturn after seven consecutive months of growth, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).
Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr. Mohd Uzir Mahidin attributed the biggest decline to the mining sector, which saw a 16.1% drop (August: -8.3%), driven by reductions in the extraction of crude petroleum (-18.6%) and natural gas (-7.9%).
The manufacturing sector also contracted, falling 1.5% (August: +1.0%), largely due to a steep decline in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (-18.7%).
In contrast, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector grew by 5.8% (August: 2.7%), with a notable increase in the growing of perennial crops index (11.2%). Utility sectors also showed positive growth, with the water supply index rising 7.8% and the electricity and gas supply index inching up by 0.3%.
On a month-on-month basis, the PPI for local production decreased by 1.5% in September, following a 0.9% decline in August. Most sectors saw a reduction, except for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector, which posted a 1.6% increase.
For the third quarter of 2024 (3Q2024), the PPI saw a marginal decrease of 0.2%, compared to 1.6% in 2Q2024, primarily due to the performance of the mining sector (-7.7%).
Looking at global trends, US PPI rose at a slower pace of 1.8% in September, while Japan's PPI increased by 2.8%, up from 2.6% in the previous month.
Mohd Uzir also noted that global oil prices settled at US$74 per barrel, the lowest level since December 2021, and crude palm oil prices are projected to stay around RM4,000 per tonne by year-end, with the potential for further increases due to lower production and stock levels.
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