Malaysian bonds are facing increased vulnerability to outflows as local yields rise alongside US Treasuries , following Donald Trump’s election win. Analysts suggest this trend could continue, particularly given the sharp ringgit depreciation against a strengthening dollar. Malaysian bonds saw net outflows of RM11.2 billion (US$2.6 billion) last month — the largest since March 2020 — according to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) data. This outflow, coupled with a sell-off in US Treasuries and a weakening ringgit, is pressuring yields higher. Notably, the 90-day correlation between Malaysian bonds and the ringgit has risen to 0.63, signaling that as the ringgit weakens, bond yields tend to rise. “The election outcome suggests continued dollar strength ,” said Philip McNicholas, Asia sovereign strategist at Robeco Group in Singapore. “With Treasury yields steepening, there’s a risk of further foreign withdrawal from emerging-market (EM) assets , especially Malaysia’s lower-yielding bonds.”
Thailand’s exports grew for the third consecutive month in September, but the increase was smaller than expected, according to data released on Monday. The country's commerce ministry projects that exports will continue to rise in the final quarter of 2024 (4Q2024).
The ministry aims for 2% export growth this year, with the total export value expected to hit a record US$290 billion (RM1.26 trillion), according to Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s trade policy and strategy office.
In September, exports rose 1.1% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.85% increase forecasted in a Reuters poll. Imports, on the other hand, surged by 9.9% from a year earlier, higher than the expected 6.0% rise.
This led to a trade surplus of US$0.39 billion in September, significantly lower than the forecasted US$1.54 billion surplus.
For the first nine months of 2024, exports increased by 3.9% compared to the same period in 2023, while imports grew by 5.5%, resulting in a trade deficit of around US$6 billion.
Comments
Post a Comment