The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
European natural gas prices fell after Israeli strikes against Iran deliberately avoided key oil, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure, easing concerns about immediate supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
Benchmark gas futures dropped by as much as 4.3% on Monday, following last week’s significant gains, while crude oil prices also slumped. The market had been bracing for a broader attack that could have threatened critical energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil.
Despite fears of escalating tensions, Israel’s response was more limited than anticipated, containing the immediate risk of a disruption to global energy supplies. This, coupled with mild weather forecasts across northwest Europe for the coming weeks, helped push prices lower, signaling a reduced need for fuel for heating.
Europe's gas inventories, now over 95% full, have remained a buffer against potential supply disruptions. However, the market has been volatile in recent weeks due to geopolitical tensions and unexpected supply outages from Norway and the US.
As of Monday morning, Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, fell 2.1% to €42.62 per megawatt-hour in Amsterdam, reflecting the market’s temporary relief from energy supply concerns.
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