The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing internal divergence as officials debate the next steps in interest rate cuts, quantitative tightening (QT), and the ongoing battle with inflation. While the ECB has largely succeeded in steering the euro-zone economy toward its 2% inflation target, the path forward is becoming less clear as policymakers differ on how to proceed.
Tensions surfaced last week during discussions in Washington, where policymakers shared differing views on rate cuts, inflation risks, and how to communicate the ECB’s strategy. This comes ahead of the crucial December meeting, where the ECB is expected to make decisions that could impact the broader economic outlook. Policymakers will soon review key data, including inflation figures for October and a report on Germany’s recession, which will provide a clearer picture of the euro zone’s economic health.
Financial markets are currently pricing in about 35 basis points of rate cuts for December, leaving traders divided between a quarter-point or a more aggressive half-point reduction. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that while the direction of rate cuts is clear, the pace will depend on backward- and forward-looking data.
The divergence within the ECB is evident. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned against cutting rates too quickly, while others, such as Lithuania’s Gediminas Simkus, see no case for a larger cut. On the other end, Portugal’s Mario Centeno has advocated for more significant rate cuts, citing economic weakness.
Adding to the complexity, some officials are concerned that accelerating the pace of rate cuts could signal deeper worries about the economic outlook, potentially creating market turbulence. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reassured that disinflation is on track, but not all members share his optimism, with some fearing a substantial undershooting of the 2% inflation target.
Another contentious issue is quantitative tightening (QT), with the ECB gradually rolling off bonds from its policy portfolios. The central bank risks a scenario where it simultaneously cuts rates while tightening liquidity, creating a delicate balancing act for policymakers.
As the ECB heads toward its next decision, the internal disagreements reflect a broader challenge in managing economic expectations while maintaining credibility in a rapidly changing environment.
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