Britain’s natural gas production is falling more rapidly than anticipated, sparking concerns over rising dependence on imports, according to Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), an industry group urging government intervention to boost investment.
Production has dropped 13% this year through August, with a similar rate of decline expected for the entirety of 2024. This is worse than the 10% decline initially forecast for the UK’s aging North Sea basin, said Ross Dornan, market intelligence manager at OEUK. "There is not a huge amount of new production coming through," Dornan added.
OEUK is seeking support in the Autumn Budget on Oct. 30 to stimulate domestic energy investment, especially after the previous government’s windfall tax on oil and gas profits during the energy crisis. The Labour Party plans to increase this levy further, which OEUK warns could result in an 80% slump in oil and gas investment over the next five years.
UK gas output has fallen by more than half in the past 15 years, with the country now producing enough energy to meet only 60% of domestic demand. Gas production currently averages 90 million cubic meters per day, but is expected to decline to 85 million cubic meters during the heating season, according to National Gas Transmission Plc.
Similarly, UK oil production is also expected to decline by 10% this year, with output averaging 660,000 barrels per day through August. By the end of the decade, daily production of both oil and gas could drop to around 700,000 barrels, though this relies on new investments, which remain uncertain under the current tax environment.
With Europe’s gas market remaining vulnerable to geopolitical risks and unplanned outages, the UK's declining energy production poses a significant challenge for the country's energy security.
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