Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) anticipates the Malaysian government to increase its development expenditure (DE) to RM94.5 billion in Budget 2025, up from RM88.5 billion in 2024. This rise is expected to enhance infrastructure projects such as the revival of the Mass Rapid Transit 3 (MRT3) and the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (KL-SG HSR).
Kenanga IB highlighted that in addition to transport, other key DE spending will likely focus on agriculture, education, healthcare, affordable housing, and national security, amid increasing regional tensions.
On the operating expenditure (OE) front, Kenanga IB projects a rise to RM306.5 billion, despite the expected removal of the RON95 blanket fuel subsidy in the second half of 2025. Savings from this move could be redirected towards targeted assistance, civil servant salary increases, and progressive wage policies.
The government's revenue is expected to rebound by 4.3% to RM316.5 billion in 2025, driven by revenue-enhancing measures and continued domestic economic growth.
Kenanga IB maintains its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025, lower than the 5% forecast for 2024, due to external risks. Additionally, the fiscal deficit is projected to shrink to 4% of GDP in 2025, from 4.5% in 2024, with contingency funds of RM5.0 billion to RM10.0 billion to act as a buffer against potential global downturns.
Kenanga IB also anticipates a focus on pro-growth policies and high-value projects with strong multiplier effects to stimulate the economy. While a broad-based consumption tax is unlikely in the near term, the government is expected to push for e-invoicing and the Global Minimum Tax to enhance tax collection and tackle tax evasion.
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