Goldman Sachs Group Inc has upgraded its economic growth forecasts for China in both 2024 and 2025 following Beijing’s recent announcement of stimulus measures aimed at boosting growth, including plans for greater public spending. The bank now expects China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 4.9% in 2024, up from its previous estimate of 4.7%. The forecast for 2025 has also been raised to 4.7% from 4.3%, according to a report released on Sunday.
Goldman economists, including Hui Shan, noted that the latest round of stimulus reflects a clear shift in Beijing’s policy focus toward economic management, with increased efforts to counter weak sentiment and deflationary pressures.
The upgrade follows the Finance Ministry's pledge to provide greater fiscal support during a highly anticipated briefing on Saturday. However, the measures fell short of direct steps to stimulate consumption, which some analysts believe are essential to combat deflation.
Key fiscal measures include the allocation of 2.3 trillion yuan (US$325 billion) in local government special bond funds for the fourth quarter, suggesting a more back-loaded spending approach that could drive a stronger growth rebound than previously anticipated. Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to pre-approve 200 billion yuan worth of investment projects for next year, further contributing to the country’s efforts to meet its target of around 5% GDP growth this year.
Goldman Sachs expects these easing measures to add 0.4 percentage points to China’s economic growth in 2025, which will help offset a 1.9 percentage point drag from declining exports and a continued downturn in the property sector.
However, Goldman warned that China’s structural challenges remain, including deteriorating demographics, a long-term debt deleveraging trend, and the global supply chain de-risking push, none of which are likely to be resolved by the recent policy actions. The bank maintained its forecasts for 2026 and beyond, citing these persistent challenges.
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