European natural gas prices jumped to €40 per megawatt-hour as escalating tensions in the Middle East added volatility to the energy market. Benchmark futures settled 2.1% higher on Monday, offsetting last Friday’s losses, as the market braces for potential disruption from a wider regional conflict between Israel and Iran.
The conflict escalated following a Hezbollah drone explosion near Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence, prompting Israel to launch military strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. With Israel's vow to retaliate against Iran for an earlier missile attack, concerns are growing about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil shipments.
Despite these geopolitical concerns, Chevron Corp., which operates Israel's Leviathan and Tamar offshore projects, reported that its facilities are operating normally, continuing to supply natural gas to Israel and the region.
Energy strategists, such as Florence Schmit of Rabobank, emphasize the uncertainty of Israel's response to the attacks, which amplifies the already tight winter outlook for European gas markets. Additionally, forecasts predict a cold snap for Europe at the end of October, which will test the region's energy infrastructure and storage capabilities.
For now, Europe's gas supply remains stable due to increased LNG deliveries and rebounded pipeline flows from Norway. However, the Dutch gas benchmark settled at €40.02 per megawatt-hour, reflecting continued market sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
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