Chinese stocks surged on Monday, with the CSI 300 Index closing up 1.9%, marking its best performance in nearly a week. The rally came after Beijing reiterated its commitment to supporting the economy with new fiscal measures, although specific details, including a headline number, were absent. Despite early volatility, the market showed signs of cautious optimism.
Finance Minister Lan Fo’an hinted at further government borrowing and new steps to support the property sector during a Saturday briefing, although the lack of a concrete figure left investors waiting for more specifics. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring fiscal policies, expecting sustained support from increased fiscal spending, which has been key in maintaining market momentum following the central bank’s stimulus actions in late September.
According to a note from HSBC Holdings Plc, the government’s policy pivot is expected to stay in place, boosting market confidence. The stock market rally, however, remains fragile, with concerns that the gains could be temporary as the market has gone through cycles of short-lived rallies in response to Beijing’s piecemeal approach to stimulus.
The mood in Hong Kong was more subdued, with Chinese shares listed there trading 0.6% lower. Meanwhile, Sunday's data showed that China’s deflationary pressures persisted in September, with weak consumer prices and declining factory gate prices.
Local governments will be allowed to use special bonds to buy unsold homes, and more sovereign bonds could be issued, potentially revising the budget in the coming weeks. Analysts had previously expected up to 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh stimulus, but the delay in large-scale action could cap further market upside.
As the market awaits additional clarity, upcoming events like the US election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November could influence the timing and size of the next round of stimulus, potentially pushing significant measures into December or beyond, according to Xin-Yao Ng of abrdn Asia Ltd.

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