Chinese stocks extended gains after a volatile start to the week, buoyed by the government's promises of fiscal support. The CSI 300 Index rose by as much as 2.4%, reversing early losses after capping its worst week since late July on Friday. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers also surged by over 3%, reflecting cautious optimism among traders.
Despite the absence of a specific fiscal stimulus figure, Finance Minister Lan Fo'an hinted at new steps to bolster the struggling property sector, alongside suggestions of increased government borrowing. This has raised expectations for more revved-up fiscal spending, which analysts see as critical for sustaining the stock market rally sparked by the central bank’s stimulus measures in late September.
Economists at HSBC, including Jing Liu, noted that while no large stimulus number was provided, the press conference still came as an "upside surprise," reinforcing expectations that the policy shift will persist and continue improving risk appetite in both the stock and property markets.
Local governments may be allowed to use special bonds to purchase unsold homes, and more sovereign bonds could be issued to help relieve local governments' debt burdens. While analysts expected up to 2 trillion yuan (US$283 billion) in new fiscal stimulus, the absence of concrete details has kept some investors wary, with market volatility likely to remain.
Concerns linger that the rally could be another false dawn, as previous piecemeal stimulus efforts have only produced short-lived rebounds. Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director at abrdn Asia Ltd., noted that upside may be capped until more concrete measures are introduced, possibly after November’s U.S. election and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
China’s deflationary pressures remain an issue, with weak consumer prices and falling factory gate prices as of September, signaling the need for continued policy support. However, officials from various departments have pledged to step up efforts to support businesses, suggesting more actions may be on the horizon to stabilize the economy.
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