Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.5% in September, down from 6.6%, as the country added 46,700 jobs, according to Statistics Canada. This stronger-than-expected job growth bolsters the Bank of Canada’s case for gradual interest rate cuts and raises hopes of a soft landing for the economy. Economists had predicted a slight rise in unemployment to 6.7% with more modest job gains.
The job growth was driven by full-time positions, which surged by 112,000, offsetting a decline of 65,300 part-time jobs. The private sector added 61,200 jobs, while the public sector shed 23,600. The overall labor force grew modestly, by just 15,900 people.
This labor market strength suggests that labor demand remains resilient, which may support the central bank's stance of continuing gradual rate cuts to tame inflation without triggering significant job losses. Canadian bonds underperformed after the report, with yields rising and the Canadian dollar gaining against the US dollar.
Ahead of the Bank of Canada’s October 23 meeting, market expectations are split between a 25 and 50 basis-point rate cut, with former Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry indicating he wouldn't be surprised by a 50 basis-point cut. This report, which is the last before the next rate decision, may ease concerns about a sharp increase in layoffs and support the likelihood of further cuts.
Wage growth also slowed to 4.5% annually, down from 4.9%. Job gains were led by sectors such as information, retail, culture, and trade, while education, health care, and agriculture saw job losses. Youth unemployment fell to 13.5% in September, down from 14.5% in August.
Economists widely expect a 25 basis-point cut at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting.
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