The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates again in January 2024, according to Eiji Maeda, a former executive director responsible for monetary policy at the BOJ. Maeda, now president of the Chibagin Research Institute, said the timing would likely coincide with the bank’s next economic projections, about six months after the July rate hike.
Maeda identified three key factors the BOJ will monitor: the US presidential election, trends in service prices this fall, and momentum in the lead-up to next year’s wage talks. Depending on these developments, the hike could be moved to December or March, though the chances of a move in October are very low, he added.
New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has indicated the economy isn’t ready for a hike now, but Maeda believes this will not prevent the BOJ from pursuing its gradual tightening path, as Ishiba is aligned with the central bank’s approach. The BOJ ended its massive easing program in March, followed by another rate hike in July.
Maeda expects borrowing costs to be raised every six months, eventually reaching 1% by January 2026. Recent economic data has shown steady recovery, with base salaries growing at a record pace of 2.9% in August and inflation accelerating for four consecutive months. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the bank has time to assess uncertainties before its next move.
Maeda also cautioned that future moves will likely be carefully telegraphed after the financial market turmoil following the July rate hike, which saw the Nikkei 225 suffer its largest drop in history.

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