Asian stocks fluctuated on Monday as investors wrestled with varying interpretations of China’s weekend promises for economic stimulus. While the pledges were broad, details on the overall scale of the measures were lacking, leaving investors uncertain about the longevity of a potential stock market rally.
At a closely-watched news conference on Saturday, China's Minister of Finance, Lan Foan, vowed to "significantly increase" debt, yet the absence of specifics caused differing reactions among market participants. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that onshore investors viewed Beijing’s restructuring of local government and housing debt as more impactful than foreign investors did.
The divergence was visible in Monday’s trading session. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower, while mainland China's CSI 300 index surged 1.6%. Property stocks onshore and offshore fared well, with the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index gaining 2.2% and the CSI 300 Real Estate Index rising 3.7%.
Despite these gains, MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan dipped 0.11%, after falling 1.7% the previous week. Trading volumes were light as Japan observed a public holiday.
In the US, S&P 500 futures slid 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.25%, mirroring the tepid performance in Asia. European markets also showed muted activity, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures easing 0.08% and FTSE futures down 0.05%.
Adding to concerns about China's economic outlook, September data revealed unexpectedly lower consumer inflation and deeper deflation in producer prices, prompting further questions about China’s growth prospects. The onshore yuan slipped 0.11% to 7.0743 per US dollar, while the offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0828.
Meanwhile, oil prices declined over worries about diminishing Chinese demand. Brent crude futures dropped 1.32% to US$78 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.3% to US$74.58 per barrel.
Still, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 2024 GDP forecast for China to 4.9%, citing the latest round of stimulus. However, they maintained a cautious structural outlook, citing "3D" challenges — deteriorating demographics, debt deleveraging, and global supply chain risks.
Global currency markets remained calm, with the US dollar hovering near a seven-week high. Sterling eased 0.13% to US$1.3050, while the euro dipped 0.11% to US$1.0923.
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