Malaysia's aviation passenger traffic is now expected to recover to 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2024, a significant upgrade from the previously projected 4% growth, according to MIDF Research. The revision comes in response to ongoing industry challenges such as aircraft delivery delays and shortages of parts and labor.
Despite these obstacles, the recent appreciation of the ringgit and easing fuel prices are providing a boost to airlines, whose expenses, particularly jet fuel, are largely US dollar-denominated. MIDF anticipates that the high-yield environment will persist, leading to rising fares, especially with Malaysia Airlines reducing its capacity by 20% for the remainder of the year.
Key international markets fueling the recovery are Indonesia, China, and India, with recovery rates for China and India reaching 98% and 93% respectively by the end of Q2 2024. This growth is further supported by a 30-day visa-free travel policy extended by China until December 2025.
The domestic sector, meanwhile, saw a modest 2.3% year-on-year growth in August 2024, driven by new services at Subang Airport.
Despite the overall recovery, MIDF expects the sector’s growth to remain between 80% to 90% for the rest of the year due to capacity constraints as airlines prioritize international routes. MIDF maintains a "neutral" rating on the sector, with Capital A Bhd as its top pick, setting a target price of RM1.06, thanks to its effective fleet expansion strategies.

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