Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
Recent economic data from the eurozone is intensifying pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement another rate cut next month. Lower-than-expected inflation in France and Spain, along with signs of a cooling German labor market, have strengthened the case for further monetary easing.
Inflation in France dropped to 1.5% in September, while Spanish inflation fell to 1.7%, both below market expectations. These figures, along with other data indicating weaker price growth expectations, suggest that eurozone inflation could fall below the ECB's 2% target soon, despite the central bank's previous hesitancy to ease policy.
Adding to concerns, a key eurozone sentiment indicator dropped more than expected on Friday, signaling weaker economic growth and cooling price pressures. Investors have now raised the probability of a rate cut at the ECB’s Oct 17 meeting to 75%, a sharp increase from 25% just a week ago.
The ECB, which has already cut rates twice this year, had been cautious about further easing due to high wage growth and inflation in services. However, policymakers described as doves are pushing for another cut, fearing that the eurozone economy is cooling too quickly and that inflation could undershoot the target more persistently.
Conversely, more hawkish policymakers argue that quarterly cuts are more appropriate, as hard data on wages, employment, and growth only come in every three months. They also caution that inflation could tick up toward the end of the year, making quick cuts potentially problematic.
Germany’s economic struggles are adding to the pressure. The country, which has shrunk in two of the last three quarters, saw a larger-than-expected increase in unemployment in September, raising concerns about an impending recession.
Economists from BNP Paribas, HSBC, and others have joined the call for an accelerated rate cut, with some predicting an October move based on the recent data flow.
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