The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Recent economic data from the eurozone is intensifying pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement another rate cut next month. Lower-than-expected inflation in France and Spain, along with signs of a cooling German labor market, have strengthened the case for further monetary easing.
Inflation in France dropped to 1.5% in September, while Spanish inflation fell to 1.7%, both below market expectations. These figures, along with other data indicating weaker price growth expectations, suggest that eurozone inflation could fall below the ECB's 2% target soon, despite the central bank's previous hesitancy to ease policy.
Adding to concerns, a key eurozone sentiment indicator dropped more than expected on Friday, signaling weaker economic growth and cooling price pressures. Investors have now raised the probability of a rate cut at the ECB’s Oct 17 meeting to 75%, a sharp increase from 25% just a week ago.
The ECB, which has already cut rates twice this year, had been cautious about further easing due to high wage growth and inflation in services. However, policymakers described as doves are pushing for another cut, fearing that the eurozone economy is cooling too quickly and that inflation could undershoot the target more persistently.
Conversely, more hawkish policymakers argue that quarterly cuts are more appropriate, as hard data on wages, employment, and growth only come in every three months. They also caution that inflation could tick up toward the end of the year, making quick cuts potentially problematic.
Germany’s economic struggles are adding to the pressure. The country, which has shrunk in two of the last three quarters, saw a larger-than-expected increase in unemployment in September, raising concerns about an impending recession.
Economists from BNP Paribas, HSBC, and others have joined the call for an accelerated rate cut, with some predicting an October move based on the recent data flow.
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